{ "date": "2026-04-13", "generated_at": "2026-04-13T21:52:15.990767+00:00", "substitution_rate": 3.86, "substitution_rate_interpretation": "Approximately 3.9% of task volume in these workload categories shows procurement-level evidence of AI substitution (contractor spend decline + AI procurement growth, FY2023 vs FY2024).", "cost_displacement": { "annual_usd": 4185702590.75, "label": "Structural cost displacement (potential)", "interpretation": "If AI handled 100% of these workloads, the cost differential at current pricing would be this amount per year. This is technical potential, not realized savings.", "avg_cost_ratio": 37195.0, "total_human_cost_annual": 4188442875.0, "total_ai_cost_annual": 2740284.25 }, "summary": { "substitution_rate_pct": 3.86, "cost_displacement_usd": 4185702590.75, "avg_cost_ratio": 37195.0, "pilot_workload_count": 9, "total_volume_units": 520250000, "avg_human_cost_per_unit": 53.5608, "avg_ai_cost_per_unit": 0.006239 }, "workloads": { "snap_eligibility": { "id": "snap_eligibility", "name": "SNAP Eligibility Processing", "soc_code": "13-1041", "soc_title": "Eligibility Interviewers, Government Programs", "human_cost": { "cost_per_unit": 25.133, "cost_per_unit_unit": "USD per workload unit", "fully_loaded_hourly": 33.5107, "annual_wage": 47930, "minutes_per_unit": 45, "source": "BLS OEWS May 2023 (static fallback)" }, "ai_cost": { "cost_per_unit": 0.000256, "cost_per_unit_unit": "USD per workload unit", "task_type": "classification", "source": "Compute CPI basket live data (CPI=69.1)" }, "displacement": { "displacement_per_unit": 25.132744, "annual_volume": 41000000, "total_annual_displacement": 1030442504.0, "displacement_ratio": 1.0, "displacement_pct": 100.0 }, "substitution_rate": { "rate": 0.021, "rate_pct": 2.1, "source": "FPDS procurement signal (contractor spend decline + AI procurement growth)", "current_fy_spend": 47960957191.3, "yoy_change_pct": 8.49, "ai_procurement_current": 0.0, "ai_procurement_prior": 0.0, "ai_procurement_yoy": null, "ai_growth_rate": 0.0524, "ai_growth_source": "global AI procurement growth (no workload-specific keyword match)" }, "absorption": { "classification": "reallocated", "reasoning": "SNAP caseload growing while workforce is flat. Workers being redirected to complex cases and fraud detection as routine processing automates. JOLTS government sector: low separations, moderate reallocation signal.", "color": "warning", "fte_current": 16500, "fte_prior": 16800, "fte_delta_pct": -1.79, "absorption_quant": "frozen", "primary_agencies": [ "USDA FNS", "State agency staff funded via federal pass-through" ], "fte_source": "OPM FedScope Employment Cube, Sep 2024 (static snapshot)" }, "volume": { "annual_units": 41000000, "source": "USDA FNS FY2024: 41M SNAP participants, ~1 eligibility review/participant/year" } }, "unemployment_claims": { "id": "unemployment_claims", "name": "Unemployment Claims Adjudication", "soc_code": "13-1031", "soc_title": "Claims Adjusters, Examiners, and Investigators", "human_cost": { "cost_per_unit": 29.381, "cost_per_unit_unit": "USD per workload unit", "fully_loaded_hourly": 50.3674, "annual_wage": 72040, "minutes_per_unit": 35, "source": "BLS OEWS May 2023 (static fallback)" }, "ai_cost": { "cost_per_unit": 0.000256, "cost_per_unit_unit": "USD per workload unit", "task_type": "classification", "source": "Compute CPI basket live data (CPI=69.1)" }, "displacement": { "displacement_per_unit": 29.380744, "annual_volume": 21000000, "total_annual_displacement": 616995624.0, "displacement_ratio": 1.0, "displacement_pct": 100.0 }, "substitution_rate": { "rate": 0.021, "rate_pct": 2.1, "source": "FPDS procurement signal (contractor spend decline + AI procurement growth)", "current_fy_spend": 47135721552.09, "yoy_change_pct": 9.84, "ai_procurement_current": 0.0, "ai_procurement_prior": 0.0, "ai_procurement_yoy": null, "ai_growth_rate": 0.0524, "ai_growth_source": "global AI procurement growth (no workload-specific keyword match)" }, "absorption": { "classification": "frozen", "reasoning": "DOL UI staffing flat since 2022 post-pandemic normalization. No new hires for claims processing roles despite rising caseloads. Vacancy rate >6 months in multiple state UI agencies. Frozen classification.", "color": "accent", "fte_current": 4900, "fte_prior": 5100, "fte_delta_pct": -3.92, "absorption_quant": "eliminated", "primary_agencies": [ "DOL ETA (federal oversight)", "State workforce agencies" ], "fte_source": "OPM FedScope Employment Cube, Sep 2024 (static snapshot)" }, "volume": { "annual_units": 21000000, "source": "DOL ETA FY2024: ~21M initial UI claims filed" } }, "call_center_triage": { "id": "call_center_triage", "name": "Call Center Triage", "soc_code": "43-4051", "soc_title": "Customer Service Representatives", "human_cost": { "cost_per_unit": 3.919, "cost_per_unit_unit": "USD per workload unit", "fully_loaded_hourly": 29.3926, "annual_wage": 42040, "minutes_per_unit": 8, "source": "BLS OEWS May 2023 (static fallback)" }, "ai_cost": { "cost_per_unit": 0.006225, "cost_per_unit_unit": "USD per workload unit", "task_type": "chat_drafting", "source": "Compute CPI basket live data (CPI=69.1)" }, "displacement": { "displacement_per_unit": 3.912775, "annual_volume": 100000000, "total_annual_displacement": 391277500.0, "displacement_ratio": 0.9984, "displacement_pct": 99.84 }, "substitution_rate": { "rate": 0.0609, "rate_pct": 6.09, "source": "FPDS procurement signal (contractor spend decline + AI procurement growth)", "current_fy_spend": 17913068641.4, "yoy_change_pct": -6.66, "ai_procurement_current": 0.0, "ai_procurement_prior": 0.0, "ai_procurement_yoy": null, "ai_growth_rate": 0.0524, "ai_growth_source": "global AI procurement growth (no workload-specific keyword match)" }, "absorption": { "classification": "reallocated", "reasoning": "IRS and SSA piloting AI-assisted call routing. Frontline agents being redirected to complex case escalations. Headcount flat while call volume rises \u2014 efficiency gain absorbed, not reflected in separations yet.", "color": "warning", "fte_current": 92000, "fte_prior": 95000, "fte_delta_pct": -3.16, "absorption_quant": "eliminated", "primary_agencies": [ "SSA", "IRS", "VA", "USCIS" ], "fte_source": "OPM FedScope Employment Cube, Sep 2024 (static snapshot)" }, "volume": { "annual_units": 100000000, "source": "SSA + IRS + VA combined call volume estimate FY2024" } }, "document_summarization": { "id": "document_summarization", "name": "Document Summarization in Casework", "soc_code": "23-2093", "soc_title": "Title Examiners, Abstractors, and Searchers", "human_cost": { "cost_per_unit": 17.0799, "cost_per_unit_unit": "USD per workload unit", "fully_loaded_hourly": 40.9917, "annual_wage": 58630, "minutes_per_unit": 25, "source": "BLS OEWS May 2023 (static fallback)" }, "ai_cost": { "cost_per_unit": 0.018225, "cost_per_unit_unit": "USD per workload unit", "task_type": "summarization", "source": "Compute CPI basket live data (CPI=69.1)" }, "displacement": { "displacement_per_unit": 17.061675, "annual_volume": 750000, "total_annual_displacement": 12796256.25, "displacement_ratio": 0.9989, "displacement_pct": 99.89 }, "substitution_rate": { "rate": 0.021, "rate_pct": 2.1, "source": "FPDS procurement signal (contractor spend decline + AI procurement growth)", "current_fy_spend": 35812447551.11, "yoy_change_pct": 2.31, "ai_procurement_current": 0.0, "ai_procurement_prior": 0.0, "ai_procurement_yoy": null, "ai_growth_rate": 0.0524, "ai_growth_source": "global AI procurement growth (no workload-specific keyword match)" }, "absorption": { "classification": "reallocated", "reasoning": "VA deploying AI-assisted claims development tools. Legal staff redirected from mechanical summarization to judgment-intensive review. Reclassification signal: GS-7 to GS-9 band for remaining roles.", "color": "warning", "fte_current": 8400, "fte_prior": 8500, "fte_delta_pct": -1.18, "absorption_quant": "frozen", "primary_agencies": [ "VA (claims processors)", "SSA (case developers)", "DOJ" ], "fte_source": "OPM FedScope Employment Cube, Sep 2024 (static snapshot)" }, "volume": { "annual_units": 750000, "source": "VA disability claims 250K/yr + SSA hearings 500K/yr" } }, "it_help_desk": { "id": "it_help_desk", "name": "Federal IT Help Desk", "soc_code": "15-1232", "soc_title": "Computer User Support Specialists", "human_cost": { "cost_per_unit": 8.464, "cost_per_unit_unit": "USD per workload unit", "fully_loaded_hourly": 42.3201, "annual_wage": 60530, "minutes_per_unit": 12, "source": "BLS OEWS May 2023 (static fallback)" }, "ai_cost": { "cost_per_unit": 0.000256, "cost_per_unit_unit": "USD per workload unit", "task_type": "classification", "source": "Compute CPI basket live data (CPI=69.1)" }, "displacement": { "displacement_per_unit": 8.463744, "annual_volume": 18000000, "total_annual_displacement": 152347392.0, "displacement_ratio": 1.0, "displacement_pct": 100.0 }, "substitution_rate": { "rate": 0.021, "rate_pct": 2.1, "source": "FPDS procurement signal (contractor spend decline + AI procurement growth)", "current_fy_spend": 36405001866.6, "yoy_change_pct": 1.45, "ai_procurement_current": 0.0, "ai_procurement_prior": 0.0, "ai_procurement_yoy": null, "ai_growth_rate": 0.0524, "ai_growth_source": "global AI procurement growth (no workload-specific keyword match)" }, "absorption": { "classification": "frozen", "reasoning": "Federal IT help desk positions frozen in multiple agencies since FY2023. AI-assisted ticketing tools deployed (ServiceNow AI, AWS Connect). No backfill of vacated Tier-1 positions. Budget justification omits replacement headcount.", "color": "accent", "fte_current": 12200, "fte_prior": 13400, "fte_delta_pct": -8.96, "absorption_quant": "eliminated", "primary_agencies": [ "GSA", "Treasury", "DoD civilian", "VA OIT", "HHS" ], "fte_source": "OPM FedScope Employment Cube, Sep 2024 (static snapshot)" }, "volume": { "annual_units": 18000000, "source": "Federal civilian workforce 2.1M \u00d7 ~8.5 tickets/employee/year (ITSM benchmark)" } }, "foia_processing": { "id": "foia_processing", "name": "FOIA Request Processing", "soc_code": "23-1011", "soc_title": "Lawyers (proxy for FOIA officers and government information specialists)", "human_cost": { "cost_per_unit": 373.6677, "cost_per_unit_unit": "USD per workload unit", "fully_loaded_hourly": 101.9094, "annual_wage": 145760, "minutes_per_unit": 220, "source": "BLS OEWS May 2023 (static fallback)" }, "ai_cost": { "cost_per_unit": 0.018225, "cost_per_unit_unit": "USD per workload unit", "task_type": "summarization", "source": "Compute CPI basket live data (CPI=69.1)" }, "displacement": { "displacement_per_unit": 373.649475, "annual_volume": 1500000, "total_annual_displacement": 560474212.5, "displacement_ratio": 1.0, "displacement_pct": 100.0 }, "substitution_rate": { "rate": 0.021, "rate_pct": 2.1, "source": "FPDS procurement signal (contractor spend decline + AI procurement growth)", "current_fy_spend": 36405001866.6, "yoy_change_pct": 1.45, "ai_procurement_current": 0.0, "ai_procurement_prior": 0.0, "ai_procurement_yoy": null, "ai_growth_rate": 0.0524, "ai_growth_source": "global AI procurement growth (no workload-specific keyword match)" }, "absorption": { "classification": "reallocated", "reasoning": "FOIA officer headcount roughly flat while request volume grows 5-7%/yr. AI-assisted redaction (DoD's RELYANT, State Department's FOIA Online) redirects officers from mechanical redaction to exemption-decision work.", "color": "warning", "fte_current": 4300, "fte_prior": 4350, "fte_delta_pct": -1.15, "absorption_quant": "frozen", "primary_agencies": [ "DOJ OIP", "DHS", "DoD", "State", "HHS" ], "fte_source": "OPM FedScope Employment Cube, Sep 2024 (static snapshot)" }, "volume": { "annual_units": 1500000, "source": "DOJ OIP FOIA Annual Report FY2023: ~1.5M federal FOIA requests received government-wide" } }, "uscis_form_intake": { "id": "uscis_form_intake", "name": "USCIS Form Intake & Initial Review", "soc_code": "13-1041", "soc_title": "Eligibility Interviewers, Government Programs (USCIS Immigration Services Officers map to this SOC family)", "human_cost": { "cost_per_unit": 16.7553, "cost_per_unit_unit": "USD per workload unit", "fully_loaded_hourly": 33.5107, "annual_wage": 47930, "minutes_per_unit": 30, "source": "BLS OEWS May 2023 (static fallback)" }, "ai_cost": { "cost_per_unit": 0.000256, "cost_per_unit_unit": "USD per workload unit", "task_type": "classification", "source": "Compute CPI basket live data (CPI=69.1)" }, "displacement": { "displacement_per_unit": 16.755044, "annual_volume": 8000000, "total_annual_displacement": 134040352.0, "displacement_ratio": 1.0, "displacement_pct": 100.0 }, "substitution_rate": { "rate": 0.021, "rate_pct": 2.1, "source": "FPDS procurement signal (contractor spend decline + AI procurement growth)", "current_fy_spend": 47135721552.09, "yoy_change_pct": 9.84, "ai_procurement_current": 0.0, "ai_procurement_prior": 0.0, "ai_procurement_yoy": null, "ai_growth_rate": 0.0524, "ai_growth_source": "global AI procurement growth (no workload-specific keyword match)" }, "absorption": { "classification": "reallocated", "reasoning": "USCIS Immigration Services Officers seeing case-mix shift toward complex adjudications as ELIS automates routine intake. Backlog still growing \u2014 absorption is into harder cases, not headcount cuts.", "color": "warning", "fte_current": 16500, "fte_prior": 16800, "fte_delta_pct": -1.79, "absorption_quant": "frozen", "primary_agencies": [ "USDA FNS", "State agency staff funded via federal pass-through" ], "fte_source": "OPM FedScope Employment Cube, Sep 2024 (static snapshot)" }, "volume": { "annual_units": 8000000, "source": "USCIS FY2024 quarterly data: ~8M form filings annually across all benefit categories" } }, "irs_notice_generation": { "id": "irs_notice_generation", "name": "IRS Notice Generation & Routine Correspondence", "soc_code": "13-2081", "soc_title": "Tax Examiners and Collectors, and Revenue Agents", "human_cost": { "cost_per_unit": 4.218, "cost_per_unit_unit": "USD per workload unit", "fully_loaded_hourly": 42.1802, "annual_wage": 60330, "minutes_per_unit": 6, "source": "BLS OEWS May 2023 (static fallback)" }, "ai_cost": { "cost_per_unit": 0.006225, "cost_per_unit_unit": "USD per workload unit", "task_type": "chat_drafting", "source": "Compute CPI basket live data (CPI=69.1)" }, "displacement": { "displacement_per_unit": 4.211775, "annual_volume": 200000000, "total_annual_displacement": 842355000.0, "displacement_ratio": 0.9985, "displacement_pct": 99.85 }, "substitution_rate": { "rate": 0.021, "rate_pct": 2.1, "source": "FPDS procurement signal (contractor spend decline + AI procurement growth)", "current_fy_spend": 47135721552.09, "yoy_change_pct": 9.84, "ai_procurement_current": 0.0, "ai_procurement_prior": 0.0, "ai_procurement_yoy": null, "ai_growth_rate": 0.0524, "ai_growth_source": "global AI procurement growth (no workload-specific keyword match)" }, "absorption": { "classification": "frozen", "reasoning": "IRS hiring restraint after FY2024 staffing recalibration. Notice generation automation reduces need for manual correspondence drafting; vacated routine correspondence positions not backfilled.", "color": "accent", "fte_current": 31500, "fte_prior": 33200, "fte_delta_pct": -5.12, "absorption_quant": "eliminated", "primary_agencies": [ "IRS W&I", "IRS SB/SE" ], "fte_source": "OPM FedScope Employment Cube, Sep 2024 (static snapshot)" }, "volume": { "annual_units": 200000000, "source": "IRS Data Book FY2023: ~200M pieces of correspondence (math-error, balance-due, identity-verification, routine response notices)" } }, "va_appointment_scheduling": { "id": "va_appointment_scheduling", "name": "VA Appointment Scheduling & Reminders", "soc_code": "43-4051", "soc_title": "Customer Service Representatives (VA Medical Support Assistants map here)", "human_cost": { "cost_per_unit": 3.4291, "cost_per_unit_unit": "USD per workload unit", "fully_loaded_hourly": 29.3926, "annual_wage": 42040, "minutes_per_unit": 7, "source": "BLS OEWS May 2023 (static fallback)" }, "ai_cost": { "cost_per_unit": 0.006225, "cost_per_unit_unit": "USD per workload unit", "task_type": "chat_drafting", "source": "Compute CPI basket live data (CPI=69.1)" }, "displacement": { "displacement_per_unit": 3.422875, "annual_volume": 130000000, "total_annual_displacement": 444973750.0, "displacement_ratio": 0.9982, "displacement_pct": 99.82 }, "substitution_rate": { "rate": 0.0609, "rate_pct": 6.09, "source": "FPDS procurement signal (contractor spend decline + AI procurement growth)", "current_fy_spend": 17913068641.4, "yoy_change_pct": -6.66, "ai_procurement_current": 0.0, "ai_procurement_prior": 0.0, "ai_procurement_yoy": null, "ai_growth_rate": 0.0524, "ai_growth_source": "global AI procurement growth (no workload-specific keyword match)" }, "absorption": { "classification": "reallocated", "reasoning": "VHA Medical Support Assistants being redirected to in-person patient navigation as AI voice scheduling agents handle routine slot-finding. Headcount stable; task mix shifting toward complex care coordination.", "color": "warning", "fte_current": 92000, "fte_prior": 95000, "fte_delta_pct": -3.16, "absorption_quant": "eliminated", "primary_agencies": [ "SSA", "IRS", "VA", "USCIS" ], "fte_source": "OPM FedScope Employment Cube, Sep 2024 (static snapshot)" }, "volume": { "annual_units": 130000000, "source": "VA Health Care FY2023 utilization: 130M outpatient appointments (each with \u22651 scheduling touch)" } } }, "ai_procurement_by_agency": { "fy_current": 2024, "fy_prior": 2023, "total_agencies": 26, "top_agencies": [ { "agency": "Department of Defense", "fy2024_obligated": 1175930164.78, "fy2023_obligated": 1050352505.77, "fy2024_award_count": 424, "fy2023_award_count": 392, "yoy_change_pct": 11.96 }, { "agency": "Department of the Interior", "fy2024_obligated": 124965469.61, "fy2023_obligated": 146627057.85, "fy2024_award_count": 12, "fy2023_award_count": 12, "yoy_change_pct": -14.77 }, { "agency": "Department of Commerce", "fy2024_obligated": 107762798.09, "fy2023_obligated": 67916590.44, "fy2024_award_count": 34, "fy2023_award_count": 24, "yoy_change_pct": 58.67 }, { "agency": "Department of Veterans Affairs", "fy2024_obligated": 66571178.09, "fy2023_obligated": 82620210.71, "fy2024_award_count": 10, "fy2023_award_count": 15, "yoy_change_pct": -19.43 }, { "agency": "Department of Health and Human Services", "fy2024_obligated": 54233218.12, "fy2023_obligated": 125494202.39, "fy2024_award_count": 40, "fy2023_award_count": 49, "yoy_change_pct": -56.78 }, { "agency": "Department of the Treasury", "fy2024_obligated": 47092302.07, "fy2023_obligated": 31048434.3, "fy2024_award_count": 11, "fy2023_award_count": 6, "yoy_change_pct": 51.67 }, { "agency": "Department of Homeland Security", "fy2024_obligated": 37255280.28, "fy2023_obligated": 25313566.34, "fy2024_award_count": 33, "fy2023_award_count": 32, "yoy_change_pct": 47.18 }, { "agency": "Department of Energy", "fy2024_obligated": 19935829.72, "fy2023_obligated": 21128462.65, "fy2024_award_count": 4, "fy2023_award_count": 5, "yoy_change_pct": -5.64 }, { "agency": "National Aeronautics and Space Administration", "fy2024_obligated": 18369987.34, "fy2023_obligated": 16303600.45, "fy2024_award_count": 27, "fy2023_award_count": 29, "yoy_change_pct": 12.67 }, { "agency": "Department of Transportation", "fy2024_obligated": 11285871.39, "fy2023_obligated": 12648343.08, "fy2024_award_count": 23, "fy2023_award_count": 23, "yoy_change_pct": -10.77 } ], "source": "USAspending.gov spending_by_award keyword search, deduped per award_id, grouped by Awarding Agency" }, "meta": { "sources": [ "BLS OEWS", "BLS ECEC", "USAspending.gov FPDS", "OPM FedScope", "Compute CPI basket" ], "pilot_workload_ids": [ "snap_eligibility", "unemployment_claims", "call_center_triage", "document_summarization", "it_help_desk", "foia_processing", "uscis_form_intake", "irs_notice_generation", "va_appointment_scheduling" ], "cpi_value": 69.1, "methodology_version": "1.1", "note": "substitution_rate is the observable signal (FPDS procurement proxy). cost_displacement is structural/technical potential at 100% substitution \u2014 not realized savings. These are distinct measurements." }, "derived_signals": { "substitution_velocity": { "composite_monthly_pp": 0.2347, "composite_acceleration_monthly_pp_per_month": 0.1441, "window_days": 90, "samples": 59, "samples_live": 1, "per_workload": { "snap_eligibility": { "velocity_monthly_pp": 0.105, "acceleration_monthly_pp_per_month": 0.184, "samples": 59, "samples_live": 1 }, "unemployment_claims": { "velocity_monthly_pp": 0.105, "acceleration_monthly_pp_per_month": 0.184, "samples": 59, "samples_live": 1 }, "call_center_triage": { "velocity_monthly_pp": 0.3475, "acceleration_monthly_pp_per_month": 0.3334, "samples": 59, "samples_live": 1 }, "document_summarization": { "velocity_monthly_pp": 0.105, "acceleration_monthly_pp_per_month": 0.184, "samples": 59, "samples_live": 1 }, "it_help_desk": { "velocity_monthly_pp": 0.105, "acceleration_monthly_pp_per_month": 0.184, "samples": 59, "samples_live": 1 }, "foia_processing": { "velocity_monthly_pp": 0.105, "acceleration_monthly_pp_per_month": 0.184, "samples": 59, "samples_live": 1 }, "uscis_form_intake": { "velocity_monthly_pp": 0.105, "acceleration_monthly_pp_per_month": 0.184, "samples": 59, "samples_live": 1 }, "irs_notice_generation": { "velocity_monthly_pp": 0.105, "acceleration_monthly_pp_per_month": 0.184, "samples": 59, "samples_live": 1 }, "va_appointment_scheduling": { "velocity_monthly_pp": 0.3044, "acceleration_monthly_pp_per_month": 0.5336, "samples": 59, "samples_live": 1 } }, "method": "Least-squares slope of substitution_rate_pct vs date over the last 90 days. Acceleration is the difference between the slope on the recent half of the window and the prior half. Reconstructed entries dominate today; samples_live shows how many live entries fed the slope.", "interpretation": "Positive velocity = substitution rate is rising (more procurement-level evidence of AI displacement over time). Positive acceleration = it's rising faster than it was a window ago." }, "wage_income_displaced": { "composite_annual_usd": 121380852.07, "per_workload_annual_usd": { "snap_eligibility": 21639513.0, "unemployment_claims": 12957021.0, "call_center_triage": 23866710.0, "document_summarization": 269008.42, "it_help_desk": 3199392.0, "foia_processing": 11770532.55, "uscis_form_intake": 2814890.4, "irs_notice_generation": 17715600.0, "va_appointment_scheduling": 27148184.7 }, "formula": "wage_income_displaced = (sub_rate/100) \u00d7 annual_volume \u00d7 human_cost_per_unit", "interpretation": "Realized labor income shifted away from human payrolls per the observed substitution rate. Distinct from cost_displacement (which is the structural gap at 100% substitution)." }, "contract_vs_fte_split": { "composite_contractor_spend_usd": 333816710414.68, "composite_fte_wage_bill_usd": 13428167000.0, "composite_contract_share": 0.9613, "composite_fte_share": 0.0387, "per_workload": { "snap_eligibility": { "contractor_spend_usd": 47960957191.3, "fte_wage_bill_usd": 790845000, "fte_count": 16500, "annual_wage_per_fte": 47930, "contract_share": 0.9838, "fte_share": 0.0162 }, "unemployment_claims": { "contractor_spend_usd": 47135721552.09, "fte_wage_bill_usd": 352996000, "fte_count": 4900, "annual_wage_per_fte": 72040, "contract_share": 0.9926, "fte_share": 0.0074 }, "call_center_triage": { "contractor_spend_usd": 17913068641.4, "fte_wage_bill_usd": 3867680000, "fte_count": 92000, "annual_wage_per_fte": 42040, "contract_share": 0.8224, "fte_share": 0.1776 }, "document_summarization": { "contractor_spend_usd": 35812447551.11, "fte_wage_bill_usd": 492492000, "fte_count": 8400, "annual_wage_per_fte": 58630, "contract_share": 0.9864, "fte_share": 0.0136 }, "it_help_desk": { "contractor_spend_usd": 36405001866.6, "fte_wage_bill_usd": 738466000, "fte_count": 12200, "annual_wage_per_fte": 60530, "contract_share": 0.9801, "fte_share": 0.0199 }, "foia_processing": { "contractor_spend_usd": 36405001866.6, "fte_wage_bill_usd": 626768000, "fte_count": 4300, "annual_wage_per_fte": 145760, "contract_share": 0.9831, "fte_share": 0.0169 }, "uscis_form_intake": { "contractor_spend_usd": 47135721552.09, "fte_wage_bill_usd": 790845000, "fte_count": 16500, "annual_wage_per_fte": 47930, "contract_share": 0.9835, "fte_share": 0.0165 }, "irs_notice_generation": { "contractor_spend_usd": 47135721552.09, "fte_wage_bill_usd": 1900395000, "fte_count": 31500, "annual_wage_per_fte": 60330, "contract_share": 0.9612, "fte_share": 0.0388 }, "va_appointment_scheduling": { "contractor_spend_usd": 17913068641.4, "fte_wage_bill_usd": 3867680000, "fte_count": 92000, "annual_wage_per_fte": 42040, "contract_share": 0.8224, "fte_share": 0.1776 } }, "formula": "contract_share = contractor_spend / (contractor_spend + fte_count \u00d7 annual_wage)", "caveat": "Contractor spend is from PSC totals (government-wide, broader than the workload), so the contract side is over-attributed. Directional only." }, "cost_ratio_decomposition": { "window_days": 90, "from_date": "2026-02-04", "to_date": "2026-04-13", "composite_ratio_change_pct": 26.19, "composite_human_share": 0.0, "composite_ai_share": 1.0, "per_workload": { "snap_eligibility": { "ratio_then": 77811.1, "ratio_now": 98175.8, "ratio_change_pct": 26.17, "human_cost_change_pct": 0.0, "ai_cost_change_pct": -20.743, "human_share_of_log_change": 0.0, "ai_share_of_log_change": 1.0, "from_date": "2026-02-04", "to_date": "2026-04-13" }, "unemployment_claims": { "ratio_then": 90962.8, "ratio_now": 114769.5, "ratio_change_pct": 26.17, "human_cost_change_pct": 0.0, "ai_cost_change_pct": -20.743, "human_share_of_log_change": 0.0, "ai_share_of_log_change": 1.0, "from_date": "2026-02-04", "to_date": "2026-04-13" }, "call_center_triage": { "ratio_then": 498.9, "ratio_now": 629.6, "ratio_change_pct": 26.2, "human_cost_change_pct": 0.0, "ai_cost_change_pct": -20.7612, "human_share_of_log_change": 0.0, "ai_share_of_log_change": 1.0, "from_date": "2026-02-04", "to_date": "2026-04-13" }, "document_summarization": { "ratio_then": 742.6, "ratio_now": 937.2, "ratio_change_pct": 26.19, "human_cost_change_pct": 0.0, "ai_cost_change_pct": -20.7574, "human_share_of_log_change": 0.0, "ai_share_of_log_change": 1.0, "from_date": "2026-02-04", "to_date": "2026-04-13" }, "it_help_desk": { "ratio_then": 26204.3, "ratio_now": 33062.5, "ratio_change_pct": 26.17, "human_cost_change_pct": 0.0, "ai_cost_change_pct": -20.743, "human_share_of_log_change": 0.0, "ai_share_of_log_change": 1.0, "from_date": "2026-02-04", "to_date": "2026-04-13" }, "foia_processing": { "ratio_then": 16247.1, "ratio_now": 20503.0, "ratio_change_pct": 26.19, "human_cost_change_pct": 0.0, "ai_cost_change_pct": -20.7574, "human_share_of_log_change": 0.0, "ai_share_of_log_change": 1.0, "from_date": "2026-02-04", "to_date": "2026-04-13" }, "uscis_form_intake": { "ratio_then": 51874.0, "ratio_now": 65450.4, "ratio_change_pct": 26.17, "human_cost_change_pct": 0.0, "ai_cost_change_pct": -20.743, "human_share_of_log_change": 0.0, "ai_share_of_log_change": 1.0, "from_date": "2026-02-04", "to_date": "2026-04-13" }, "irs_notice_generation": { "ratio_then": 536.9, "ratio_now": 677.6, "ratio_change_pct": 26.2, "human_cost_change_pct": 0.0, "ai_cost_change_pct": -20.7612, "human_share_of_log_change": 0.0, "ai_share_of_log_change": 1.0, "from_date": "2026-02-04", "to_date": "2026-04-13" }, "va_appointment_scheduling": { "ratio_then": 436.5, "ratio_now": 550.9, "ratio_change_pct": 26.2, "human_cost_change_pct": 0.0, "ai_cost_change_pct": -20.7612, "human_share_of_log_change": 0.0, "ai_share_of_log_change": 1.0, "from_date": "2026-02-04", "to_date": "2026-04-13" } }, "method": "log(ratio_now/ratio_then) = log(h_now/h_then) - log(a_now/a_then). Each side's share = its log term divided by total log change. Composite = volume-weighted log changes.", "caveat": "Reconstructed history holds human cost constant, so human_share is ~0 until live wage data accumulates. AI side reflects Compute CPI movement." } } }