AI Economic Activity Index
A synthetic unit (AIU) measuring global AI economic activity through token volumes, inferred spend, and energy consumption. Modeled on the IMF's Special Drawing Rights.
Basket Components
The AIU is a weighted composite of three activity indicators, each normalized to January 2025 = 100.
Methodology
Basket Composition
| Token Volumes (60%) | Cross-provider token throughput from OpenRouter rankings |
| Inferred Spend (30%) | Calculated as token volumes × blended pricing (70% input, 30% output) |
| Energy Proxy (10%) | Blended: 70% token-derived proxy (tier efficiency factors) + 30% grid investment growth (BloombergNEF) |
Index Calculation
Each component is normalized to its January 2025 baseline value (= 100), then weighted:
AIU = 0.6 × token_index + 0.3 × spend_index + 0.1 × energy_index
Data Sources
- Token volumes: OpenRouter rankings (weekly aggregates)
- Pricing: OpenRouter API, LiteLLM, llm-prices.com, pricepertoken.com
- Energy: 70% tier-based efficiency factors + 30% BloombergNEF global grid investment data
Data Quality
Important Notes
Coverage Scope: The AEAI currently tracks activity visible through OpenRouter's public rankings. This represents a significant but incomplete view of global AI economic activity. Direct API usage, enterprise deployments, and closed-loop systems are not captured.
Energy Estimation: The energy index blends two signals: a token-derived proxy (70%, from tier efficiency factors) and a grid investment growth index (30%, from BloombergNEF annual global grid investment data, with data centers cited as a key demand driver). BloombergNEF reported $470B in 2025 grid investment (+16% YoY), serving as the baseline. Grid investment data is updated annually and interpolated weekly.
Baseline Period: January 2025 is set as the baseline (AIU = 100) to align with the Compute CPI baseline. This provides a common reference point for tracking both price deflation and activity growth.